Economic Collapse

Dear readers,

Why is gold ascending in price? Why does it cost you more to go out for lunch today than one year ago? If you understand that gold is money that cannot be printed at will by Central Banks and you look at this chart, then you will be able to answer the questions above.

Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

Note also that according to the Fed, we are not in a recession. But then again, according to Ben Bernanke, gold is not money. Now after you watch that clip, read this:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. …This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.
- Alan Greenspan

Ben Bernanke is on the other hand doing exactly what Greenspan told the world in 1997:

[…] A government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. A fiat money system, like the ones we have today, can produce such claims without limit.
[…] Thus, central banks are led to provide what essentially amounts to catastrophic financial insurance coverage. […] If the owners or managers of private financial institutions were to anticipate being propped up frequently by government support, it would only encourage reckless and irresponsible practices.
[…] On the other hand, if central banks effectively insulate private institutions from the largest potential losses, however incurred, increased laxity could threaten a major drain on taxpayers or produce inflationary instability as a consequence of excess money creation.

Listen here to an interview Eric King of KingWorldNews.com did with Jim Sinclair in 2009 discussing this quote. Key words: excess catastrophic money creation without limit.

I advice you to watch what the Fed is doing, and listen with critical ears to what they are saying. The Fed is not only managing monetary aggregates, they are managing the perspective on economics (what Jim Sinclair calls “MOPE”). In essence they are saying one thing, doing another and at the same time understanding the third: Gold is money. Has always been. And will continue to be until we come up with a system without money.

We are at a point of critical systemic risk, as James G. Rickards told the GATA audience in London earlier in August. You should still be in wealth protection mode, and not in trading mode, now more so than ever.

Best Regards /Johnny

“This time around, you are not going to sell it, you’re going to spend it. Gold is going to reassert itself as currency. When it does you will know it is at its maximum value. That’s probably three to five years down the road (2014-2016). Weather it’s 8,000 or 4,000 or 20,000, you can’t forecast it because you don’t know what the central banks are going to do in terms of how badly they are going to debase the US Dollar”.
- James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com

On the 27th of January 2011, I attended Cheviot’s Sound Money Conference (9 videos available). I flew in to The City, the belly of the beast, to listen to some of my favorite economists like James Turk of GoldMoney.com, Chris Powell of GATA.org, Hugo Salinas-Price of The Mexican Civic Association for Silver and David Morgan of Silver-investor.com. Also attending and participating during the last hour of panel debate were Max Keiser of the Keiser Report and Ben Davies of Hinde Capital. This was a Rivendel type gathering of both wise men seeing the future and men and dwarves debating over issues only wizards and elves can see beyond.

There is a lot to say about the content of the day in London, but you can see all of it for your selves and make your own conclusions. But to some it all up: The followers of Sound Money know what is going on. Very few have any clue what so ever – even those with degrees in economics since most of them are caught in a Keynsian perspective. What we have been saying now for years are slowly becoming main stream. If you do not own physical gold and silver, you own no liquidity that will stand the test of time.

I highly recommend David Morgans analysis of the silver market, as well as Hugo Salinas-Price excellent presentation on how to practically apply and re-instate silver as currency from a state level. We have much to learn here when we reorganize our local economies along side a collapsing fiat system.

A question I often get from people is “when do I sell my gold”? The question really expresses a state of mind embedded in the fiat system of paper. If you understand that the fiat system is dying and fading away like a withering weed for flowers to grow in its place, you become to understand that you will not sell your gold and silver this time: you will spend it. Fiat paper will one day buy you nothing. That is how James Turk summarized that debate in one sentence during the panel debate (26min into the debate), also quoted above.

In 2011 I see silver at at least 50 USD/Oz and gold approaching 1800 USD/Oz. Probably this is too low. Friends and I have discussed that what we see happening is transpiring much slower than we both anticipated, however I do feel 2011 will be the year when gold and silver becomes mainstream. If I am correct the above fiat price targets will be proven wrong on the low side. The silver market is extremely tight, now also in backwardation. This is huge. Physical metal is selling out all throughout the world driven by Chinese massive buying. A friend of mine trying to take advantage of lower VAT on silver told me that one German online silver dealer sold out one year of exporting quotas to Sweden in less than two weeks! If you don’t have any physical silver, get it now. More on the tightness of the market of silver here from Eric Sprott and daughter.

I haven’t written anything here in a long time, but really there is nothing to say except repeat what we already know. Accumulate as much metal as you can during the coming weeks and months. This time, before the Spring Equinox, I feel it will be the last time we see gold below 1400 USD/Oz and silver below 31 USD/Oz. If you have fiat money you can afford to lose, I can certainly give you recommendations in the Casino Matrix of Stocks and Derivatives. However, that is not recommended if you value good sleep. Contact me if you need advice and consulting on how to manage your portfolio for 2011. James Turk makes an excellent point in his presentation on how to look at gold and silver in your portfolio.

Just came back from the pre-premiere of a Swedish-made movie called “Overdose - The Next Financial Crisis“. It’s narrated by Cato Institute affiliate and free-lance writer Johan Norberg and the movie is also based on one of his books. I must say the movie portrays the dire mess we are in, in a manner that’s very easily grasped. This makes it a very good movie to share with your friends if you find it difficult to get people close to you to listen to boring financial lingo. Highly recommended! The film features trend forecaster Gerald Celente, investor Peter Schiff and many others.

For everyone in Washington D.C., the Cato Institute is screening the film on the 17:th of May 2010.
Facebook group is also available.

As I posted a two days ago, Peter Schiff does not agree with Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman about China and what would happen if the chinese stopped buying US debt. As he said in the video he would write an in-debth article on the same subject. That article is now available, entitled “Paul Krugman Versus Reality“. Here are a few quotes:

In his latest weekly New York Times column, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman put forward arguments that were so nonsensical that the award committee should ask for its medal back…

According to Krugman, our secret weapon of economic invincibility is the Fed’s ability to print dollars endlessly. If China were to foolishly decide to attack us by selling our debt, the Fed could simply step in and buy the excess with newly printed greenbacks. (In other words, Krugman sees no difference between funding the debt and monetizing it. See my latest video blog on the subject.). For Krugman, China would gain little from such an attack, but would lose the ability to export to its best customer and suffer severe losses in the value of its dollar holdings. Krugman’s worldview is reassuring - but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality…

There is a huge difference between selling your debt to another and “selling” it to yourself. When China buys our debt, it uses its own savings. In order to purchase a trillion dollars of U.S. Treasuries, the Fed would have to expand our money supply by a corresponding amount. Even Krugman acknowledges that this would cause the dollar to lose value; however, he feels that a weaker dollar is good for America and bad for China…

Krugman does not believe that a tanking dollar will translate into higher interest rates or higher consumer prices at home. No matter how many dollars the Fed creates, or how much value those dollars lose relative to other currencies, he is confident that as long as unemployment remains high, rates will stay low and inflation will remain under control. This is absurd…

To construct a policy around Krugman’s ridiculous assumption that we benefit China more than they benefit us is to invite catastrophe on an unimaginable scale.

Peter Schiff takes on Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times in this little clip explaining why Krugman is wrong on China and the impact of a Chinese massive sell-off of US debt on the Dollar. This is a good example on the difference between a Keynesian view (Krugman) and the view held by the Austrian School of Economics (Schiff). For some fun on the difference between these schools of though, watch this rap video.

I’d love to see a debate between these two guys.

However controversial this might sound to you dear reader, this article sums up the handwriting on the wall - no sugar coating. Follow Bob Chapmans references down the rabbit hole at your own risk. I don’t really care for the conspiracy stuff anymore even though I have my fair share of insights. This blog is about how to prepare yourself in times of change as well as explaining the lies of financial media in simpler terms - not so much about the conspiracy you inevitably find doing research. Thing are happening, knowing about why is secondary. Knowing how to act to protect you purchasing power is primary.

Here’s a quotes from Bob Chapmans article:

Most observers discuss Europe’s problems and the plight of the euro, pound, and the Danish and Swedish koronas. They believe these European currencies will plunge lower versus the dollar and that the dollar will maintain, even after a dollar rally from 74 to 81 on the USDX. As we have said before the euro was unnatural creation born of a desire to usher in a world currency. As we shall see in the future the euro will fail. In spite of that the dollar is certainly no bargain, because next year America will be totally bankrupt. As a result of the terrible conditions among currencies, gold makes great gains. Last year and so far this year gold is up 10% to 24% against many major currencies. This kind of action of course proves again that gold is the world’s strongest currency. We might add here that we believe that it is only a matter of time before the LBMA, or Comex, or the ETFs, GLDs and SLVs are enveloped in scandal. As so often has happened in history fiat currencies have collapsed. Thus, it will happen again. Those of you not in gold and silver related assets will lose most of what you have worked for your entire lives.

Like I said, no sugar coating, from Bob Chapman of The International Forecaster.

I got a question from a friend today and I thought I’d share it with you here on my blog:

Question: The value of the dollar has gone up recently and it seems to be holding steady. Why is that so?

My short answer is this:

1. First, the derivatives and equities markets are highly leveraged. This means that fund managers borrow cash, with stock or other assets as collateral, to buy even more stock.
2. The more they borrow the worse their credit rating gets and the more interest they have to pay on their loans, their “leverage”. How do they get a better credit rating? They call AIG and purchase a “credit default swap”, insurance from defaulting on loans, and they borrow even more…
3. Now, when the value of the stock invested fall, they get a “margin call” from the bank or institution that provided the borrowed cash. This means that the fund manager by contract is forced to sell.
4. The loan for the cash is taken in USD, but the stock bought with the cash is often purchased on a stock exchange outside the US in the currency of that market. When the stock is sold, due to the margin call, this sale is also done in the local currency. But since the loan is denominated in USD the fund manager first have to sell the local currency and buy back USD to pay back the loan to the issuing institution (paying back the loan is called “deleveraging”). This creates a temporary demand for USD which causes it to go up compared to the local currency.

Also, the second point to be made is that US government bonds are considered to be a “safe haven” in times of turmoil. This is because the USD is still the preferred reserve currency of central banks. This is about to change as inflation kicks in due to the expansion in the money supply and the mega borrowing from the Fed. When the deleveraging is over, and the central banks around the world realize that the USD is no longer a safe haven, the USD will drop like a stone – game over. The other currencies will then shortly after collapse as well. Only gold and silver will preserve your purchasing power at that point.

In late 2009/2010 the USD has been rising again. This is caused by the massive short on the Euro in connection to the crisis in Greece. The financial industry will hammer the Euro, Sterling and eventually the USD again. Remember, all fiat paper will go down to its true value Zero. It’s not how high gold will go, it’s how low paper will fall.

Great interview with John Embry. He really makes the case for gold. As he puts it the question isn’t how high gold can go but how low fiat paper can fall:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/2/6_John_Embry.html

- “You should be in wealth-protection mode, not in trading mode”
John Williams

Very good audio interview with John Williams of Shadowstats.com released today. Listen carefully:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/2/6_John_Williams.html

As many of you know Peter Schiff is now running for Senator in the State of Connecticut. Schiff is an American economist of the Austrian School, author, commentator and popular video blogger who regularly appears in the role of a bearish pundit on numerous financial news networks. He predicted the Dotcom crash of 2000 and the Housing crisis of 2007/2008 and like the author of this blog he belives that the US Dollar is heading for hyperinflation. He is a licensed stock broker, the president of Euro Pacific Capital with a 100 employees who successfully protect their clients wealth by moving out of the US dollar and into real money such as gold etc.

If you want a crash course in the problems with the US economy, watch this. A good hour well spent with a lot of information and humor. Enjoy.

Disclosure: I have no vested interest in Euro Pacific Capital nor do I receive any payment for writing this.