Economic Collapse

Unemployment in the USA has reached at least 20% according to a recent Gallup poll. Shadow Government Statistics puts the number at about 22%. The fact is that the official reported unemployment level of 10% i far from the real truth. The US is cooking its books as Greece did to enter the Euro-zone. They got caught. The market now values the risk of borrowing money to Obama higher than to Warren Buffet. There will be no jobless recovery. This is not the beginning of the end of the recession, it is the start of an epic depression. What should you do to protect your savings? Buy gold and silver and keep it in your own possession. The only risk you take by doing that is being robbed by desperate unemployed criminals.

This is a great article by Alar Tamming, Tavex, Estonia and Dr. Krassimir Petrov, Ahlia University, Bahrain on the situation we are in right now minus all the mass-media propaganda. Their cannot be a “jobless recovery”, you can’t print your way out of this mess. Keynesianism is wrong at the core, no matter what bureaucrats, politicians, journalist or bankers tell you. The printing of money of Central Banks around the world has gone parabolical and the paper will return to its intrinsic value of zero. Read the rest of this entry »

As I posted a two days ago, Peter Schiff does not agree with Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman about China and what would happen if the chinese stopped buying US debt. As he said in the video he would write an in-debth article on the same subject. That article is now available, entitled “Paul Krugman Versus Reality“. Here are a few quotes:

In his latest weekly New York Times column, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman put forward arguments that were so nonsensical that the award committee should ask for its medal back…

According to Krugman, our secret weapon of economic invincibility is the Fed’s ability to print dollars endlessly. If China were to foolishly decide to attack us by selling our debt, the Fed could simply step in and buy the excess with newly printed greenbacks. (In other words, Krugman sees no difference between funding the debt and monetizing it. See my latest video blog on the subject.). For Krugman, China would gain little from such an attack, but would lose the ability to export to its best customer and suffer severe losses in the value of its dollar holdings. Krugman’s worldview is reassuring - but it has absolutely nothing to do with reality…

There is a huge difference between selling your debt to another and “selling” it to yourself. When China buys our debt, it uses its own savings. In order to purchase a trillion dollars of U.S. Treasuries, the Fed would have to expand our money supply by a corresponding amount. Even Krugman acknowledges that this would cause the dollar to lose value; however, he feels that a weaker dollar is good for America and bad for China…

Krugman does not believe that a tanking dollar will translate into higher interest rates or higher consumer prices at home. No matter how many dollars the Fed creates, or how much value those dollars lose relative to other currencies, he is confident that as long as unemployment remains high, rates will stay low and inflation will remain under control. This is absurd…

To construct a policy around Krugman’s ridiculous assumption that we benefit China more than they benefit us is to invite catastrophe on an unimaginable scale.

This is actually exactly how money works on Wall Street these days. I’m not kidding, but Jon Stewart sure is:
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart: In Dodd We Trust

Peter Schiff takes on Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times in this little clip explaining why Krugman is wrong on China and the impact of a Chinese massive sell-off of US debt on the Dollar. This is a good example on the difference between a Keynesian view (Krugman) and the view held by the Austrian School of Economics (Schiff). For some fun on the difference between these schools of though, watch this rap video.

I’d love to see a debate between these two guys.

“Money, when considered as the fruit of many years’ industry, as the reward of labor, sweat and toil, as the widow’s dowry and children’s portion, and as the means of procuring the necessaries and alleviating the afflictions of life, and making old age a scene of rest, has something in it sacred that is not to be sported with, or trusted to the airy bubble of paper currency.”
– Thomas Paine

However controversial this might sound to you dear reader, this article sums up the handwriting on the wall - no sugar coating. Follow Bob Chapmans references down the rabbit hole at your own risk. I don’t really care for the conspiracy stuff anymore even though I have my fair share of insights. This blog is about how to prepare yourself in times of change as well as explaining the lies of financial media in simpler terms - not so much about the conspiracy you inevitably find doing research. Thing are happening, knowing about why is secondary. Knowing how to act to protect you purchasing power is primary.

Here’s a quotes from Bob Chapmans article:

Most observers discuss Europe’s problems and the plight of the euro, pound, and the Danish and Swedish koronas. They believe these European currencies will plunge lower versus the dollar and that the dollar will maintain, even after a dollar rally from 74 to 81 on the USDX. As we have said before the euro was unnatural creation born of a desire to usher in a world currency. As we shall see in the future the euro will fail. In spite of that the dollar is certainly no bargain, because next year America will be totally bankrupt. As a result of the terrible conditions among currencies, gold makes great gains. Last year and so far this year gold is up 10% to 24% against many major currencies. This kind of action of course proves again that gold is the world’s strongest currency. We might add here that we believe that it is only a matter of time before the LBMA, or Comex, or the ETFs, GLDs and SLVs are enveloped in scandal. As so often has happened in history fiat currencies have collapsed. Thus, it will happen again. Those of you not in gold and silver related assets will lose most of what you have worked for your entire lives.

Like I said, no sugar coating, from Bob Chapman of The International Forecaster.

- Jim Sinclair, March 7th 2010:

What is the difference between the State of California and the State of Greece? The State of California is a bigger bankruptcy… The financial industry is at war with Greece. The CDS-attack (Credit Default Swaps, an off-the-counter derivative) is a nuclear financial attack on Greece.

Very interesting two-part interview with the legendary Jim Sinclair of JSMineSet.com by King World News. Listen to this amazing interview: part 1 and part 2.

In part 2, Jim Sinclair talks about Quantitative Easing, hyperinflation and the coming One World Currency of the IMF and a de facto financial One World Government.

The interview ends with Jim Sinclair concluding:

“Be prepared! This is a great civilization change. The most positive thing you can do is to recognize what is out there. The greatest contribution you can make to your family is to be prepared. So when all of this happens, you already have things in place: plans as of what you can do.
…We are not trying to scare anybody or trying to sell anything. We are simply saying, this is the hand writing on the wall. This is what’s most likely going to happen. In order to prepare you have to look at your financial and physical situation. You have to se weather or not this is a really great and significant shift in world history.
…The entire purpose of all this is preparation, because the truth will set us free.”

That last statement is at the core of why I have this blog. The world is changing. If you want to protect the purchasing power of your savings from the devaluation of the printing press - buy gold. If you want to stimulate your mind and stay a head of the game, keep reading, listening and watching. Stay tuned…

Today Bloomberg quoted Romano Prodi, the former European Commission President and the former Italian prime minister:

“For Greece, the problem is completely over.”
“I don’t see any other case now in Europe. I don’t think there is any reason to think the euro system will collapse or will suffer greatly because of Greece.”

So yesterday everyone was concerned about the huge soverign debt of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy etc, and today the problem is gone? I advise you, dear reader, to read between the line and consider this as Orwellian doublespeak. This is what Jim Sinclair calls MOPE, Management of Perception Economics. This statement is to me the best evidence to date of the seriousness of the Greek cricis.

I got a question from a friend today and I thought I’d share it with you here on my blog:

Question: The value of the dollar has gone up recently and it seems to be holding steady. Why is that so?

My short answer is this:

1. First, the derivatives and equities markets are highly leveraged. This means that fund managers borrow cash, with stock or other assets as collateral, to buy even more stock.
2. The more they borrow the worse their credit rating gets and the more interest they have to pay on their loans, their “leverage”. How do they get a better credit rating? They call AIG and purchase a “credit default swap”, insurance from defaulting on loans, and they borrow even more…
3. Now, when the value of the stock invested fall, they get a “margin call” from the bank or institution that provided the borrowed cash. This means that the fund manager by contract is forced to sell.
4. The loan for the cash is taken in USD, but the stock bought with the cash is often purchased on a stock exchange outside the US in the currency of that market. When the stock is sold, due to the margin call, this sale is also done in the local currency. But since the loan is denominated in USD the fund manager first have to sell the local currency and buy back USD to pay back the loan to the issuing institution (paying back the loan is called “deleveraging”). This creates a temporary demand for USD which causes it to go up compared to the local currency.

Also, the second point to be made is that US government bonds are considered to be a “safe haven” in times of turmoil. This is because the USD is still the preferred reserve currency of central banks. This is about to change as inflation kicks in due to the expansion in the money supply and the mega borrowing from the Fed. When the deleveraging is over, and the central banks around the world realize that the USD is no longer a safe haven, the USD will drop like a stone – game over. The other currencies will then shortly after collapse as well. Only gold and silver will preserve your purchasing power at that point.

In late 2009/2010 the USD has been rising again. This is caused by the massive short on the Euro in connection to the crisis in Greece. The financial industry will hammer the Euro, Sterling and eventually the USD again. Remember, all fiat paper will go down to its true value Zero. It’s not how high gold will go, it’s how low paper will fall.